Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows As Bond Rout Slows

Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows As Bond Rout Slows

US equity futures rebounded from an overnight selloff which dragged Asian and European stocks lower, and which was sparked by surging bond yields. Emini futures unchanged around 3,927 as 10Y yields slipped from a 1-year high of 1.34% to 1.29% as buyers emerged in the Asian and European session ahead of a number of US risk events, including the January FOMC Minutes. 

The MSCI world equity benchmark fell 0.1% as a weaker start of trading in Europe offset a brief surge in Asia overnight. The index ended flat on Tuesday to snap 11 straight positive sessions, the longest streak in 17 years.

“The market is fairly frothy here from a sentiment perspective,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said on Bloomberg TV. “You have to put a move higher in yields that goes out of the comfort zone as a potential risk associated with that.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index slipped amid a mixed bag of corporate results. Kering dragged retail shares lower after its Gucci brand missed estimates, and British American Tobacco Plc slid following its full-year results. Rio Tinto Group climbed after reporting a 20% jump in annual profit on a surge in iron ore prices. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Rio Tinto shares gain as much as 4.4%, touching a record high, after the miner reported its largest annual profit in nine years and said it will pay a record dividend, helping to boost mining stocks.
  • Sinch shares surge as much as 24% to a record after the cloud communications software firm bought Inteliquent in a deal that Handelsbanken said would add fuel to the “rocketing” stock.
  • CNP Assurances shares gain as much as 5.4% to the highest in nearly a year, with Bryan Garnier saying the “very good news” in the insurer’s in-line earnings was the payment of a dividend.
  • Kering shares plunge as much as 9.2%, the most since March 18, with analysts saying the luxury-goods group’s key Gucci brand missed relatively low expectations in the fourth quarter.
  • British American Tobacco shares slide as much as 7.5%, the most since March 16, with analysts saying the group’s guidance was disappointing given the recovery in industry volumes.

Asian stocks erased a loss to trade little changed, as stocks surged in Taiwan and fell in South Korea. TSMC was the biggest boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index after a report said the Taiwanese chipmaker plans to boost advanced process production amid rising demand. The Taiex climbed 3.5%. Vietnam’s key equity gauge also gained more than 3%. Internet giants Tencent and Meituan helped power advances in Hong Kong shares. South Korean stocks dropped, dragged lower by Samsung Electronics after it halted operations at a Texas plant due to the recent blackouts. Philippine stocks fell amid concerns over rising inflation on higher oil prices. Markets in China remained closed for Lunar New Year holidays

With China still closed much of the focus was on Japan, where stocks fell after a rally that pushed the nation’s stock gauges to the highest levels in 30 years and as rising yields spooked some investors. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which closed Tuesday at its highest level since June 1991. The Nikkei 225 pulled back after advancing beyond the key 30,000 mark to its highest since August 1990. The 14-day relative strength index on both measures continues to hover above the key 70 level, which some see as indicating the market is due for a correction. SoftBank Group closed slightly lower after climbing to a record high Tuesday.

The big story in markets remains the move in bonds, where ten-year Treasury yields are up nearly 40 basis points this year as vaccine progress and economic data begin drive investor focus on soaring inflation. Yields rose as far as 1.3330% before easing to 1.29%. The 2s10s, or the gap between 10-year and two-year U.S. yields, also reached its widest in nearly three years in anticipation of short-term rates going nowhere.

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons for the move, as investors try to price in the impact of a still-to-be-completed stimulus bill, and the reopening of the U.S. economy. As JPM discussed on Tuesday, from a trader’s perspective, the question “why yields are rising” matters even more. As JPM futures trader Matt Booras explains, if yields are rising for “good reasons” such as increasing GDP forecasts, then stocks will be fine. However, if there is a “bad” yield rising event such as a lack of demand for US Treasuries then stocks may come under pressure. Irrespective of the reason, Booras is looking for yields to eventually compress multiples which could disproportionately hit Tech while Cyclicals still move higher.

“Regarding the bond market sell-off, things are finally starting to get serious as real yields are on the rise, driven by bets … of central banks tightening sooner than previously expected,” said Arne Petimezas, analysts at AFS in Amsterdam. “Risk-assets are now becoming vulnerable to a pull-back.”

In the short term, however, investors expect central banks to keep monetary policy loose and minutes later on Wednesday from the U.S Federal Reserve’s January meeting are expected to reinforce that view.

“Recent remarks by (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell and several other Fed officials show that the FOMC is very comfortable with its current policy stance,” wrote UniCredit strategists.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a second day as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. Scandinavian currencies led the decline, while the yen was little changed at around 106 per dollar after slipping for four consecutive days. The kiwi pared an intraday drop after the Auckland lockdown was lifted, before slipping again. Bitcoin’s rally showed little sign of abating after the token jumped past $51,000 for the first time. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.2075. Sterling, which has been surging as vaccinations roll out rapidly across the United Kingdom, was last down 0.1% at $1.3892.

In commodities, oil fluctuated around $60 a barrel in New York amid a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to rise and jumped past $51,000 for the first time. Gold touched a two-week low on Wednesday.

Looking to the day ahead there are a number of US data releases, including January’s retail sales, industrial production and PPI, while there’s also the NAHB housing market index for February. Otherwise, there’s also the January CPI readings from the UK and Canada. Separately, we’ll also get the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, and the Fed’s Barkin, Rosengren and the BoE’s Ramsden will be speaking.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,925.00
  • MXAP little changed at 220.84
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 744.85
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 30,292.19
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,961.49
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 31,084.94
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,655.09
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.35%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.2073
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.72/bbl
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 51,736.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,885.22
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 3,133.73
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,786.50
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 90.76

Top Overnight News

  • Mario Draghi said the European Union needs a common budget to battle recessions and urged Italians to pull together in a historic effort to rebuild their country, as he made his initial speech in the Senate as Italy’s prime minister
  • U.S. Treasuries are in for more wild gyrations, with volatility markets signaling that the benchmark bond yield could surge or drop by almost 30 basis points in the next three months. The three-month implied volatility on 10-year swap rates jumped by the most since March on Tuesday, surpassing the levels heading into the 2020 U.S. election
  • Europe is getting left in the dust like never before by the reflation frenzy across the Atlantic. Rising energy costs are driving yields on Treasuries and German bunds higher, yet market proxies for inflation expectations in the U.S. are outpacing those in the euro area by the most in over a decade
  • Germany had to pay to borrow money for the first time in nearly a year as market bets on global reflation have pushed up yields
  • U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January, in what economists say is the first step toward a significant increase that could bring the rate close to the Bank of England 2% target later this year
  • The European Union finalized an agreement with Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE for 200 million more doses of their Covid-19 vaccine, locking in a second-quarter supply boost as countries struggle to speed up their immunization drives
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. is working with about 10 stressed or distressed borrowers in Europe hoping to lower the cost of government bailout loans in the debt market, according to senior bankers

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac equity markets traded mostly lower after the lacklustre handover from Wall Street where the major indices finished mixed and retreated from fresh intraday records as the rising yield environment provided a headwind for stocks. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with underperformance in gold miners after the precious metal retreated beneath USD 1800/oz and consumer staples were also pressured by declines in supermarket operator Coles despite posting profit growth in H1, as it warned sales in the sector could moderate significantly or even decline in H2 and beyond. However, the losses in the broader market were cushioned as participants digested a slew of mixed results including a jump in Westpac profits which boosted shares in the big 4 lender and with some slight encouragement from the announcement to lift the 5-day snap lockdown in Victoria state. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) conformed to the subdued mood after reports suggested the government was not planning to lift COVID-19 emergency measures and following mixed data in which Machinery Orders showed surprise growth for December but Exports and Imports in January missed estimates, while KOSPI (-0.9%) suffered after domestic COVID-19 cases rose to the highest since early January following the Lunar New Year holiday. Conversely, Taiwan’s TAIEX (+3.5%) surged as it played catch up to the recent global advances on return from its 11-day closure and the Hang Seng (+1.1%) shrugged off early losses to extend on its best levels since early 2018 amid Hong Kong IPO optimism for this year and ahead of the return of mainland participants tomorrow. Finally, 10yr JGBs continued to weaken on spillover selling from USTs and with domestic yields tracking stateside counterparts which earlier rose to fresh cycle highs, while the absence of BoJ purchases in the market also contributed to the lack of demand for Japanese government bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Baidu’s Back With an $80 Billion Rally and Electric Car Ambition
  • Qatar Lays Out Ambition to Be LNG King for At Least Two Decades
  • Tokyo Olympics to Pick Female Minister as Chief, NHK Says
  • Hong Kong May Prohibit Insults of Public Officials, Reports Say

European stocks opened today’s session relatively flat/mixed but with a downside bias following a similarly downbeat APAC close. Meanwhile, US equity futures are trading flat but with the cyclically-driven Russell 2000 futures modestly underperforming. Bourses in Europe continue to follow the slightly softer trend (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%), considering the lack of news flow thus far in the run-up to FOMC minutes. Sectors are mainly in the red with no distinct risk bias and with some seemingly moving on idiosyncratic factors. Energy is the outperformer following the price action in the crude complex and the sectorial laggard is Retail (-2.9%) as Kering’s (-7.9%) biggest brand Gucci fell short of LFL sales expectations -10.3% vs exp. -7.2%. Moreover, in-fitting with this, the Consumer Discretionary sector and the CAC are softer, with Kering accounting for over 3% of the index’s weighting. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (+3.4%) is higher after Co. announced FY profit after tax of USD 10.4bln vs prev. USD 7.0bln and a dividend of USD 5.57/shr vs prev. USD 4.43/shr. Meanwhile, British American Tobacco (-5.4%) trades lower, potentially due to commentary surrounding FY21 global tobacco volume , which is expected to fall by 3.0%. Akzo Nobel are (+1.6%) higher in the wake of their better-than-expected earnings. Turning away from earnings, Nestle (-0.3%) trades modestly into the red amid reports that it is offloading regional spring water brands, purified water business and beverage delivery operations in US and Canada to One Rock Capital Partners for USD 4.3bln.

Top European News

  • Europe Clinches Pfizer-BioNTech Deal for 200 Million More Doses
  • Draghi Tells Italy Lawmakers EU Needs Common Budget
  • Akzo Plans $1.2 Billion Buyback After Rival Snatches M&A Target
  • U.K. Inflation Ticks Higher on Its Way Toward BOE’s 2% Target

It remains largely a long term rates and reflation rather than general risk sentiment story in terms of Dollar direction and corresponding moves in other currencies by default, but global stocks are beginning to get twitchy about the implications of soaring yields and steeper curves to keep the Greenback underpinned on safe haven grounds even when US Treasuries and bond peers enjoy bouts of consolidation and recuperation. Indeed, the index is just shy of a fresh rebound high and mostly above the 21 DMA that comes in at 90.624 today within a 90.844-617 band in the run up to a raft of data, more Fed speak and FOMC minutes from the January policy meeting. However, the impending Usd 27 bn 20 year note auction results may have more bearing for the Buck via any reaction in USTs.

In FX, the Franc and Euro are bearing the brunt of the Dollar renaissance, as the former slips below 0.8950 and latter to circa 1.2060 with little in the way of support until 1.2050 for psychological reasons. Moreover, the single currency is also feeling the weight of relative Sterling strength or resilience as Eur/Gbp extends even further to the downside and through 0.8690.

  • NZD/AUD/GBP – Little traction from news that COVID-19 restrictions will be relaxed in Auckland and NZ as a whole from tomorrow, with the Kiwi pulling back beneath 0.7200 vs its US rival and underperforming against the Aussie as the Aud/Nzd cross rebounds from around 1.0750 to 1.0786. Conversely, Aud/Usd is keeping sight of 0.7250 in the run up to jobs data and some timely comments from RBA’s Kent overnight on the labour market (needs to be tight to lift earnings and inflation). Note, the Assistant Governor also announced tweaks to FX swaps in favour of longer term foreign currency purchases, but with no impact on the value of the Aud. Elsewhere, the Pound has lost grip of the 1.3900 handle even though UK inflation metrics were firmer than forecast and Cable now awaits rhetoric from BoE’s Ramsden for some independent impetus.
  • JPY/CAD – The Yen has clawed back some lost ground after sliding under 106.00 as JGBs play catch-up in yields and long end swap rates spike, but Usd/Jpy is still elevated following the breach of key resistance levels. Similarly, the Loonie failed to tread water above 1.2700, but has pared some of its decline from 1.2719 before Canadian CPI alongside firmer crude.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue with their upward trajectories as the complex remains elevated by underlying fundamentals (vaccine/reflationary/recovery hopes and OPEC+ support), alongside the short-term supply cripple in Texas amid serious adverse weather conditions – with US output hit by some 3.5mln BPD, roughly equivalent to Iraq’s oil production. Texas produced around 4.6mln BPD according to the latest data by the EIA. These factors have kept WTI buoyed around 60.50/bbl (vs low USD 59.55/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart probes USD 64/bbl (vs low USD 62.75/bbl). Crude prices at these levels have prompted market chatter regarding OPEC+ politics and policy; it’s expected that hawkish producers, namely Russia, will exert some pressure on the group to ease output cuts, with recent commentary from Russia’s Novak also suggesting that the market is balanced. However, Saudi will have to avoid a rift widening as the Kingdom itself is currently poised to reintroduced the 1mln BPD of oil which was taken offline as a goodwill gesture in January. ING suggests “It is unlikely that the group would bring a little over 2.2mln BPD of supply back onto the market, aware that the market would baulk at such a decision”, but highlights that there is room for some sort of easing, contingent on how much output volume Saudi decides to return from its cuts. Note, the Saudi Energy Minister is set to speak today at 12:00GMT/07:00EST at the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Focus will be on his short/medium term outlooks – which could provide some hints as to the producer’s preferred policy route ahead of the JMMC and OPEC+ meeting on Mar 3rd and 4th respectively. The minister will likely reaffirm the group’s flexibility and the need to be proactive, whilst attempting to steer clear of any direct comments on the upcoming meeting itself. Remarks surrounding the Texas developments could echo the Qatari Energy Minister’s view in which he highlighted the temporary nature of the weather disruptions and the robustness of the US oil market. Analysts at ING have upgraded their oil forecasts, with 2021 Brent seen averaging USD 65/bbl (vs. prev. USD 60/bbl) – “While we see limited further upside in the first half of this year, it is over the second half of this year where we see more upside, given the expectation of a stronger demand recovery over this period.” That being said, the bank is aware of the clear downside risks lingering, including 1) further COVID waves, 2) Fed tapering and 3) the “swift” return of Iranian oil into the market and 4) the non-zero chance of OPEC+ not reaching an accord. Elsewhere, precious metals erred lower during early European hours with spot gold losing further ground below USD 1,800/oz as a result of rising real yields, a firmer Dollar and the confirmed “death cross” setup from a technical standpoint. Downside levels for the yellow metal include USD 1,774.85/oz, USD 1,773.10/oz and USD 1,764/oz, marking the 1st Dec, 27th Nov and 30th Nov lows respectively. Turning to base metals, LME copper is softer today amid the firmer Buck and the broader defensive bias but remains comfortable above USD 8,000/t.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 0.9%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.1%, prior 1.2%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 1.0%, prior -1.9%; Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.1%, prior -0.7%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -1.4%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.9%, prior -2.1%
  • 9:15am: Jan. Capacity Utilization, est. 74.9%, prior 74.5%;
  • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.7%, prior 0.9%
  • Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.6%
  • 10am: Dec. Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%;
  • 10am: Feb. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 83, prior 83
  • 2pm: Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the US arriving back at their (home) offices after Monday’s holiday, the astonishing equity rally we’ve seen in recent days has showed signs of petering out over the last 24 hours, as the MSCI World Index (-0.02pts and -0.00%) missed out by the narrowest margin on a 12th successive gain yesterday that would have been the longest winning run since 2003. This slight pullback in equities was evident across different regions, with Europe’s STOXX 600 and S&P 500 both falling -0.06% from their recent highs. The reflation rotation was in full force though as rising yields and climbing oil prices helped Bank (+2.79%) and Energy (+2.26%) stocks to keep the S&P 500 near unchanged, while European Banks (+1.06%) and Basic Resources (+1.24%) did the same for the STOXX 600. Meanwhile Tech Hardware (-1.33%) and defensive bond-proxies such as Real Estate (-1.07%) and Utilities (-1.14%) were among the S&P’s worst performers.

Indeed the bigger story was taking place in sovereign bond markets, where the selloff continued to gather pace as investors stuck with the reflation trade, not least as Congress is increasingly focusing on the passage of stimulus now that former President Trump’s impeachment hearing is out of the way. Yesterday saw a significant bear-steepening in US Treasuries, with 10yr yields up +10.6bps to 1.314% (trading at 1.296% this morning), taking them above their highs last March when we had a crazy period where Treasuries climbed over 85bps (including intra-day extremes) in around 7 business days before reversing the move over the next 10.

Tuesday’s move took the 2y10y yield curve +8.9bps steeper to 118.4bps – its steepest point since March of 2017. 30 year yields were +8.0bps higher yesterday at 2.09%. The session saw the biggest daily move higher for US yields since that crazy March period in the midst of the initial global pandemic response. On top of this, inflation expectations powered forward as well, with 10yr US breakevens at a fresh 6-year high of 2.25%, as 2-year breakevens climbed to their highest level in nearly a decade, at 2.65%. President Biden himself said “bigger is better now” on stimulus in a townhall meeting last night. We also got confirmation that President Biden would make his first address to a joint session of Congress in March, with the administration waiting to get the current pandemic relief plan through beforehand. The topic of that address is expected to focus on Biden’s longer term economic recovery plan including infrastructure and clean energy initiatives as well as any measures that do not make it into the initial bill – notably the minimum wage hike. On the stimulus package, House Majority Leader Hoyer said in a call with Congressional Democrats that the House is aiming to vote on Feb 26. A vote in the Senate will take place shortly thereafter in order for the benefits to be enacted by mid-March when much of the previous pandemic relief runs out.

Note that it was announced yesterday that Powell will be delivering the semi annual policy report to Congress next Tuesday so it’ll be interesting whether he continues to be as dovish as he has been recently given these moves and the ongoing stimulus debate. 7 days is a long time in markets so we’ll see where yields are then but it could be a big focal point for markets.

Over in Europe it was much the same story yesterday, with 10yr bunds seeing a +3.3bps increase to -0.35%, their highest level since last June. The moves were given added support by a couple of positive data surprises, with the expectations reading in the German ZEW survey unexpectedly rising to a 5-month high of 71.2 (vs. 59.5 expected), whilst the Q4 GDP print for the Euro Area as a whole was revised down a tenth to show a smaller -0.6% contraction. Italian debt was on its way to once again outperforming, with their spread over bunds tightening a further -1.5bps intraday to a 5-year low of 0.89%, before a late widening saw the spread finish +1.2bps wider overall at 0.92%. That came as a 10-year bond offering in Italy attracted a record €110bn in demand, demonstrating how investor expectations are incredibly high for Draghi’s performance as PM. Speaking of Draghi, his government will face a confidence vote in the Senate today, before another vote takes place in the lower house tomorrow, though given his broad base of support among most of the political parties, he should count on a very large majority in parliament.

Asian markets are generally dipping this morning with the Nikkei (-0.56%), India’s Nifty (-0.60%), Kospi (-1.12%) and Asx (-0.46%) all down. An exception to this pattern is the Hang Seng which is up +0.76%. China’s markets continue to remain closed and will again open tomorrow. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading broadly flat while in keeping with the slight risk off tone, the US dollar index is up +0.15%.

Turning to the coronavirus pandemic, our chart in today’s email looks at the share of people in England who’ve got Covid-19 antibodies by age, which comes from the Office for National Statistics’ Covid-19 infection survey. The second of this series came out yesterday, which has allowed us to compare the data between the two points, and it shows that the biggest spike in antibodies has been among the over-80s. This makes sense when you consider that they were first in line for vaccinations, and that it takes another 2-3 weeks for the body to generate enough antibodies to fight infection. Over the coming weeks, you’d expect that increased vaccination numbers should send those percentages up further for the elderly groups, and move us closer to herd immunity. So this is a good news graph which hopefully will turn into a huge drop in cases for this group when the economy reopens. The vaccination table and the usual case and fatalities tables are in the pdf as ever.

Elsewhere, President Biden expressed confidence in his target of administering 100m vaccine doses within his first 100 days in office. In a tweet, Biden said “I believe we’ll not only reach that, we’ll break it.” This comes as the country is increasing vaccine supply to 13.5mn doses per week, up from 11mn and the Biden Administration will double the number of shots available at pharmacies. During the aforementioned townhall late last night, President Biden said that the US expects to have 600M vaccine doses by the end of July, which would make it possible to inoculate all residents. The president also made clear that the goal is to have schools reopened fully by the end of his first 100 days. Meanwhile, amidst the progress on vaccinations, the US has also seen a 39% decline in hospitalisations from a winter peak of 114,281 on January 25. As of yesterday, the hospitalization from the disease stood at 70,277.

Over in the EU, the European Medicines Agency received Johnson & Johnson’s application for conditional marketing authorisation for its Covid vaccine. The EMA said that they could issue an opinion by mid-March, which would make it the fourth vaccine to be authorised in the EU, after BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca’s.

In other news, the US energy shortages continued yesterday thanks to the recent cold weather, with nearly 5 million left without electricity. Given the freezing temperatures in Texas and the Midwestern US, oil refineries and shale wells were closed which continued to push up oil prices. Occidental Petroleum (+4.21%), the second largest crude producer in the Permian Basin, declared a force majeure to its customers – indicating to buyers that Occidental is being forced to curb deliveries for an undetermined length of time. However, WTI oil prices have eased back from their intraday highs on Monday, when they hit $60.95/bbl, and closed yesterday at $60.10/bbl.

Given the power outages in Texas, planned remarks from Dallas Fed President Kaplan were cancelled yesterday. However, we did hear from St Louis Fed President Bullard, who said in a CNBC interview that he didn’t think there was a bubble in markets, even as he acknowledged that stocks were “highly valued on the whole.” We also heard from the San Francisco Fed President Daly that she does not believe there is “unwanted inflation right around the corner” and that the fear of inflation could cost “millions of jobs”. Staying on the Fed, later today we’ll get the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting, which our US economists say should point to upside risks to the growth outlook given the prospects for further fiscal stimulus this year. However, as the comments above illustrate, Fed officials have resoundingly reiterated that the threat of an unwanted inflation overshoot remains low, and Chair Powell set the tone last week when he reiterated that the US was still “very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are broadly shared”. So overall our economists don’t expect the minutes to yield any specifics on tapering other than to reiterate that they’ll seek to provide guidance “well in advance”.

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of US data releases, including January’s retail sales, industrial production and PPI, while there’s also the NAHB housing market index for February. Otherwise, there’s also the January CPI readings from the UK and Canada. Separately, we’ll also get the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, and the Fed’s Barkin, Rosengren and the BoE’s Ramsden will be speaking.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/17/2021 – 07:48

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